Author Archives: fruitfly108

About fruitfly108

I am a maverick of sorts who dabbles in the healing arts of meditation, nutrition, and yoga.

Post-mortem of a disaster

The earthquake was not unexpected, but it could have been far worse. It was a rehearsal for the really big ones to come.

There are two things we can now say about the deadly earthquake that struck Central Nepal on 25 April leading to tragic loss of life and property: a) It was not a surprise, and b) It could have been far worse. Himalayan seismologists agree that the quakes did not sufficiently release seismic energy beneath us, and that this earthquake should spur us to be better prepared for the really big ones to come.

Kunda Dixit

Relief work is going on, supplies haven’t reached many remote settlements and hospitals are still having to cope with the backlog of wounded. So, it may still be a bit premature to analyse the response to the disaster by the state, the international community, non-governmental groups and individuals to this disaster. Even so, some lessons could also have a bearing on ongoing relief and help streamline it before the rains arrive mid-month.

For about 10 years before the earthquake, scientists and international agencies had beenwarning the Nepal government to step up preparedness, set up a Disaster Management Authority, start retrofitting schools and hospitals. Alarm bells were ringing about just how unprepared we were to a disaster that everyone knew was coming. During the 1996-2006 conflict, Nepalis had to deal with the day-to-day disaster of war, and earthquakes were not a priority. Since 2006, the constitution, peace process and power games have preoccupied politicians and the media, leaving them too distracted to plan for a future quake.

Even so, the awareness campaign was starting to have an effect. Funds were being pledged, exercises held, contingency plans drawn up, communities had started stockpiling emergency equipment and pre-positioning supplies. We were preparing to be prepared when the earthquake struck on 25 April.

There were many factors that kept the death toll far lower than expected. First of all, at M7.8 this wasn’t a ‘Big One’ and it didn’t strike at night when most people would have been home. The intensity and duration of shaking was just below the threshold for ferro-cement failure, so brick and clay mortar buildings went down and only badly-built concrete structures collapsed. Also, the dry season and over-extraction of groundwater had lowered Kathmandu’s water table which meant that the Valley’s soft soil did not suffer liquefaction.

Striking just before noon on a Saturday saved at least 75,000 lives – of children who would have been in the 5,500 schools that were completely destroyed. Many of their parents were in the fields, digging potatoes, harvesting wheat or weeding the cornfields. A quarter of the men in the 15 districts have migrated out, which also lowered the death toll.

Kathmandu itself was spared the worst-case scenario for a projected M8.5. Telecommunications could have gone down, but didn’t. The airport should have been knocked out, but reopened in a few hours. Highways linking Kathmandu to the plains were not blocked, bridges did not go down.

Electricity was restored to most of the capital in a few days. Retrofitted schools in the Valley and the outskirts all survived. Hospital buildings did not collapse, and triage training drills had prepared medical staff, and the system worked. Journalists who had attended disaster management workshops reported responsibly. The state media performed exceptionally well in keeping the flow of accurate information, and community FM stations went back on airalmost immediately after the first shock, transmitting from improvised outdoor studios.

Experts we spoke to while researching this piece, however, said there are many things that could have been done better during the ‘Golden Hour’ when more lives could have been saved. The first few days saw slow government response, confusion and lack of coordination. The National Emergency Operation Centre should have been activated immediately with participation of top political leaders, security agencies, scientists as well as the United Nations Resident Coordinator. Customs was a disaster, operating with obdurate business-as-usual red tape when relief material needed urgent delivery.

This group could have taken snap decisions on assessment, deployment of search and rescue, relief and coordinating incoming assistance. As it turned out, the politicians vanished, and the Nepal Army stepped in to play the coordinating role. The other lesson is to immediately expand and train the Armed Police and Nepal Army’s Collapse Structure Search and Rescue teams and equip them properly, so they can respond even faster to save more lives, and be more cost-effective than international rescuers.

The April quake and aftershocks in May only partially released the energy stored under Kathmandu, and the rupture fizzled out south of the Valley. There is still a potential for another quake in Central Nepal, and then there is the ominous ‘seismic gap’ in western Nepal that hasn’t seen a mega-quake in 800 years. Both will be even more disastrous than what we have just been through, with the city’s reinforced concrete structures not able to withstand the shaking.

What we have seen was just a warning to be better prepared, a rehearsal for even bigger quakes to come.

Read also:

Radio active after the quake, Sonia Awale

Not-so-big one

Shaking things up, Editorial

Preparing to be prepared, Kunda Dixit

Storm compounds lives under tent

KATHMANDU, MAY 23 – High winds and thundershowers on Saturday evening added to the hardships of people taking refuge in tents in open spaces after the April 25 earthquake displaced them.

Heavy storms accompanied by brief rainfall hit the Capital and the surrounding districts, killing at least one person and affecting thousands living in makeshift shelters.

Dust storms covered many places in the Capital starting at 5pm. Thousands living in open spaces in Kathmandu and its outskirts were affected by the sudden storm and rain. The wind blew away hundreds of tents and the brief downpours made the belongings wet.

“Scores of tent-houses were blown by the storm and the rainfall dampened our clothes. We have no blanket dry to use,” said Sita Manandhar, who has been staying under a tent in Basantapur area since the earthquake destroyed her house.

A sudden change in local weather conditions brought brief rains accompanied by winds of 78 km per hour speed in the Valley. The impact was felt for about 45 minutes before the gusts moved to eastern districts. Thunderclouds travelled from Dhading and are now moving towards the East, said Barun Poudel, a meteorologist at the Meteorological Forecasting Division (MFD).

Kumar Shahi of Dallu said many people reset their tents for shelter after the rain stopped. “The storm blew some 15 tent-houses here. Many people could not even keep their bed sheets dry. Everyone is now picking pieces as we have nowhere to go,” Shahi, who has been taking shelter at Ram Ghat, said over the phone.

The storm and rains also affected the people taking shelter in Tundikhel and other grounds in the Valley. “It affected children and the elderly. People are wearing wet clothes. It’s going to be a hard night for them,” said Saroj Bajracharya, from Tundikhel.

Police said at least one person was reported dead. According to Nepal Police spokesman DIG Kamal Singh Bom, the victim was identified as Laxmi Kumari Dahal, 32, who was riding pillion on the bike driven by her husband when a tree branch crushed her. “She died in Janamaitri Hospital during treatment. Her husband is reportedly fine,” said Bom.

A taxi was damaged in the Pashupatinath area but no injuries were reported. “Many people in Kathmandu and outside were affected after the storm damaged their makeshift shelters. But, we have not yet got reports from the outside of serious losses,” Bom told the Post.

Home Ministry spokesman Laxmi Prasad Dhakal said they had not received reports of any serious damage. According to the Met Office, rains were recorded in Taplejung, Pokhara, Okhaldhunga and Kathmandu.

Temperatures especially in Tarai have shot up significantly in the recent days. Kathmandu on Saturday recorded day temperature at 33 degrees Celsius, the highest so far this year.

A displaced tries to save his tent from the storm in Tundikhel on Saturday evening. Photo by : Hemanta Shrestha

KATHMANDU, MAY 23 – High winds and thundershowers on Saturday evening added to the hardships of people taking refuge in tents in open spaces after the April 25 earthquake displaced them.

Heavy storms accompanied by brief rainfall hit the Capital and the surrounding districts, killing at least one person and affecting thousands living in makeshift shelters.

Dust storms covered many places in the Capital starting at 5pm. Thousands living in open spaces in Kathmandu and its outskirts were affected by the sudden storm and rain. The wind blew away hundreds of tents and the brief downpours made the belongings wet.

“Scores of tent-houses were blown by the storm and the rainfall dampened our clothes. We have no blanket dry to use,” said Sita Manandhar, who has been staying under a tent in Basantapur area since the earthquake destroyed her house.

A sudden change in local weather conditions brought brief rains accompanied by winds of 78 km per hour speed in the Valley. The impact was felt for about 45 minutes before the gusts moved to eastern districts. Thunderclouds travelled from Dhading and are now moving towards the East, said Barun Poudel, a meteorologist at the Meteorological Forecasting Division (MFD).

Kumar Shahi of Dallu said many people reset their tents for shelter after the rain stopped. “The storm blew some 15 tent-houses here. Many people could not even keep their bed sheets dry. Everyone is now picking pieces as we have nowhere to go,” Shahi, who has been taking shelter at Ram Ghat, said over the phone.

The storm and rains also affected the people taking shelter in Tundikhel and other grounds in the Valley. “It affected children and the elderly. People are wearing wet clothes. It’s going to be a hard night for them,” said Saroj Bajracharya, from Tundikhel.

Police said at least one person was reported dead. According to Nepal Police spokesman DIG Kamal Singh Bom, the victim was identified as Laxmi Kumari Dahal, 32, who was riding pillion on the bike driven by her husband when a tree branch crushed her. “She died in Janamaitri Hospital during treatment. Her husband is reportedly fine,” said Bom.

A taxi was damaged in the Pashupatinath area but no injuries were reported. “Many people in Kathmandu and outside were affected after the storm damaged their makeshift shelters. But, we have not yet got reports from the outside of serious losses,” Bom told the Post.

Home Ministry spokesman Laxmi Prasad Dhakal said they had not received reports of any serious damage. According to the Met Office, rains were recorded in Taplejung, Pokhara, Okhaldhunga and Kathmandu.

Temperatures especially in Tarai have shot up significantly in the recent days. Kathmandu on Saturday recorded day temperature at 33 degrees Celsius, the highest so far this year.

Nepal’s Aid System Is Broken. So These Lifesavers Hacked It

Destroyed houses and new temporary structures in Dandagaun, Nepal. Click to Open Overlay Gallery

Earthquake Comparisons

M7.8 NEPAL on April 25th 2015 at 06:11 UTC

Last update: 13 May 2015 at 14:00 UTC

Earthquake details | Aftershocks locations | Intensity map | Quick map of the felt area
Comments posted by the witnesses | Send us pictures or videos | Epicenter location

EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION DOES NOT EXIST !

We have heard about rumors in Nepal that there has been some earthquake prediction. THIS IS NOT TRUE. There is no earthquake prediction today, it does not exist. Scientists are able in some cases to identify what is called seismic hot spots. Hot spots are areas where a large earthquake can be expected in time period ranging from tens to hundreds of years. But science is unable to predict when an earthquake will strike. Well known hot spots are for example, Istanbul, Tokyo or Los Angeles.

M7.8 earthquake of April 25th

A very powerful earthquake of magnitude 7.8 hit Nepal on Saturday April 25th, 2015 at 06:11 UTC (11:56 local time). More information on the main shock is available here. The epicentre was located 80 north-west of Kathmandu.

The earthquake caused major damage in Kathmandu and in surrounding cities. The death toll exceeds 8,000 victims.

Many buildings in the region have been destroyed, including a number of centuries-old temples. A number of landslides have also been reported in the area and the earthquake also triggered a “huge avalanche” on Mount Everest, which killed at least 17 people at it’s base camp.

The shake has been felt all over Nepal, India and Bangladesh as far as Kerala, India, more than 2,200 km away.

Read more:

– BBC article on earthquake recurrence in Kathmandu area, quotes Laurent Bollinger & Paul Tapponnier

What caused the earthquake in Nepal ?

– IRIS Teachable Moments

M7.3 earthquake of May 12th

On May 12th at 07:05 UTC (12:50 Nepal time) a M7.3 earthquake occurred at the eastern end of the rupture zone that caused the M7.8 of April 25th. This powerful earthquake made 66 victims and more than 1,000 injured.

More info about this earthquake here : http://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=441545

Comparison between April 25th and May 12th earthquakes

  • Preliminary source study provided by CEA/DASE/LDG (Bruyères-le-Châtel, France):

18 teleseismic good quality GSN broadband waveforms are retrieved from IRIS servers and processed with the patch method (Vallee et al. 2004). For frequencies lower than 6 seconds, one patch of slip is sufficient to ensure a good fit between data (in black) and synthetics (in red) for both P waves (outer red ring) and SH waves (inner yellow ring).

The found fault plane is very similar to that of Mw7.8 25 April earthquake, with a bilateral rupture which extends in both South-East and North-West directions. The maximum amount  of slip on the fault is about 2 meters and horizontal extension is about 60km. These results are preliminary, further work is needed to confirm these fast estimated fault parameters.

  • Moment tensors solutions
M7.8 of April 25th M7.3 of May 12th

Aftershocks locations

http://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/Map/gmap_ondemand.php?min_lat=27.2&max_lat=28.7&min_long=84.2&max_long=87.0&timemin=1429942286.3&timemax=1435600000.3&scale=8

The aftershock distribution shows a ruptures zones which starts from the main shock and extends approx. 150 km to the south-east (Figures 1 and 2).

Two of these aftershocks are of magnitude 6.7. The first occurred 34 minutes after the first shock and very close to it. The second occurred 25 hours after the main shock and 135 km away, at the other end of the rupture zone (Figures 1 and 2).

M7.8 Nepal aftershock distribution M7.8 Nepal aftershock time distribution
Figure 1: Aftershocks geographic distribution Figure 2: Aftershocks and population density
aftershocks and population aftershocks rate
Figure 3: Aftershocks time distribution Figure 4: Aftershocks rate

Internet Earthquake Detection and map of the felt area

Felt area Felt area
M7.8 of April 25th M7.3 of May 12th

When an earthquake is felt by the population, the eye-witnesses rush on the internet to find out the cause of the shaking. When they reach EMSC website, we automatically detect the surge of traffic, locate the eye-witnesses thanks to their IP adress and map the area where the earthquake was felt.

This technique allows us to quickly detect felt earthquakes (within 1 or 2 minutes) and map the felt area before the first seismic data are available.

View it on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gQ55br2R50c

Intensity maps

(generated with the results of the online questionnaire)

intensity intensity
M7.8 of April 25th M7.3 of May 12th

M7.8 of April 25th testimonies posted by the witnesses

waiting Loading, please wait…

http://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/Map/maps.php?id=438530&type=witnYou can click on the map’ icons to view specific information.

Pictures or videos of damage

You were on the spot and you have taken photos or videos of earthquake effects (on buildings, ground, landscape), please send us your files. Send them by mail or upload them directly from your computer. Just click on the link below :

Send us pictures or videos of the main shock effects. After validation your files will be displayed on this page.

  • Pictures provided by the eye-witnesses for the M7.8 earthquake of April 25th:
waiting Loading, please wait…

http://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/Gallery/galleryDiapo.php?id=438530&type=iframe&download=no

Nepal quake death toll becomes highest on record; dozens still missing

A boy clears rubble from his home during a landslide after Tuesday's earthquake at Singati Village, in Dolakha, Nepal

.

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A boy clears rubble from his home during a landslide after Tuesday’s earthquake at Singati Village, …

KATHMANDU (Reuters) – The number of people killed in Nepal by two major earthquakes has surpassed 8,500, making the disaster the deadliest to hit the Himalayan country on record, as rescuers on Sunday searched for dozens of people still missing in remote villages.

A 7.8-magnitude earthquake hit Nepal on April 25, killing thousands and demolishing more than half a million homes, most of them in rural areas cut off from emergency medical care.

A second major quake struck on Tuesday 76 kilometers (47 miles) east of the capital Kathmandu, just as Nepalis were beginning to recover from the previous earthquake.

The death toll from the two quakes now stands at 8,583, the home ministry said on Sunday.

The previous deadliest earthquake to strike the country – in 1934 – killed at least 8,519 in Nepal, as well as thousands more in neighboring India.

In Dolakha district east of Kathmandu, which was hit hardest by the second quake, dozens of landslides have blocked access to remote villages.

In Singati village, devastated by a landslide, dozens are still missing and rescue workers are yet to remove debris from all of the village to recover bodies, district officials said.

Prime Minister Sushil Koirala told reporters on Sunday 58 foreigners had died in the two earthquakes. Koirala said 112 foreigners were still unaccounted for, although many of those could be backpackers who choose not to register with authorities when they leave the country.

(Reporting by Tommy Wilkes and Gopal Sharma; Editing by Dominic Evans)

Relief Coordination Formalities

Its very important for relief teams and volunteer groups to coordinate with the Nepal Government especially local VDC’s (village development committees) if they want clearance to enter Nepal from any land borders or at the airport. Registered international agencies can get a stamped letter of permission from the Nepali Government to show to any border police at any checkpoints.

More information on this later about who to contact….

Earthquake Volunteer Groups

Facebook Groups

Guest House Communities

Registered NGO’s

The Mountain Fund: http://www.mountainfund.org/